Another trading year is officially in the books. The S & P 500 ended the year with nine straight weeks of gains and was just short of an all-time high. The broad market index posted a return of 24.2% for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial notched a 13.7% increase, while the Nasdaq was the biggest winner, surging nearly 43.4%. Despite all the excitement over possible new highs, it was a mellow week for the markets, characterized by low volume in an overbought market. We didn’t get caught up in any FOMO , and instead chose to wait for a better opportunity to buy (or sell) shares. It was a nice lull before 2024 kicks off, and we had a chance to look back on third-quarter earnings and grade our holdings. Looking to the new year, we hit the ground running with several key macroeconomic reports and an earnings release from one of our holdings. 1. Jobs, jobs, jobs . The main event this week is Friday’s jobs report. Investors watch this one closely because employment is generally super important to an economy driven by consumption. They also hone in data within the report — especially wage inflation — for clues about consumers’ buying power. That indirectly points to the potential future path of inflation. That’s why, in addition to the headline number (economists expect to see 155,000 additions) we are keeping a close eye on the unemployment rate (3.8% expected) and wage inflation, where we are looking for 4% increase versus the year-ago period. The ADP Employment report comes a day earlier (usually released on Wednesday except when the market is closed on Monday), where economists are expecting to see 115,000 additions. Nonfarm payrolls carries more weight but expect investors to analyze the ADP report for clues to Friday’s report. We’ll also get the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) job openings report on Wednesday. JOLTS analyzes the number of job openings (more openings implies less available workers to fill those openings, indicating a tighter labor market, supply and demand) as well as the rate of hiring, and the rate of workers leaving their jobs. 2. Is manufacturing still in a recession? The ISM manufacturing report is out Wednesday and factory orders on Friday. The expectation is that we’re still in a manufacturing recession with consensus estimates for ISM Manufacturing at 47.1 as of Friday. Factory orders is also important to keep an eye on, but it’s a more delayed report; this will be a November read, whereas ISM will be the December release. Also, the nonfarm payrolls report released earlier Friday morning will likely overshadow it. We’ll also get ISM services on Friday, where economists are looking for a reading of 52.7% for the month of December. As a reminder, the ISM report measures the rate of contraction or expansion, measured by the distance from that 50-level benchmark. The further below 50, the faster the contraction and the further above 50, the faster the rate of expansion. 3. One last Club earnings report. Constellation Brands reports third-quarter earnings on Friday before the opening bell. We’ve seen a few positive preview notes in recent weeks. Analysts at JPMorgan called it a top beverage pick for 2024, while analysts at Barclays raised their price target on the positive momentum in beer sales, and analysts at Goldman Sachs reiterated STZ as a “conviction buy.” In addition to monitoring for continued strength in beer (recall, depletions accelerated by a rate faster than Wall Street was modeling last time around), we’ll be looking for confirmation of management’s messaging that wine-and-spirits sales are starting to pick back up. Monday, January 1 Markets closed for New Year’s Day Tuesday, January 2 No events of note Wednesday, January 3 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing 10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS Job Openings 2:00 p.m. ET: FOMC Minutes Before the bell: UniFirst Corporation (UNF) After the bell: Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) Thursday, January 4 8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Report 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claims Before the bell: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Lamb Weston (LW), RPM International (RPM), Conagra Brands (CAG) Friday, January 5 8:30 a.m. ET: Nonfarm Payrolls 10:00 a.m. ET: Factory Orders 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services Before the bell: Constellation Brands (STZ), Greenbrier Companies (GBX) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Another trading year is officially in the books. The S&P 500 ended the year with nine straight weeks of gains and was just short of an all-time high. The broad market index posted a return of 24.2% for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial notched a 13.7% increase, while the Nasdaq was the biggest winner, surging nearly 43.4%.
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