Stem stock tumbles 12% on weak guidance

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By News Room 3 Min Read

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SAN FRANCISCO – Stem, Inc. (NYSE: STEM), a leader in AI-driven clean energy solutions, disclosed its financial outcomes for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023, revealing a mix of achievements and setbacks. The company reported Q4 revenue of $167.4 million, marking an 8% increase from $155.5 million in the same quarter the previous year. However, the GAAP gross margin dipped to 7% from 8% in Q4 2022. Despite a net loss of $37.7 million, which widened from a $35.3 million loss in Q4 2022, Stem achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 million compared to a negative $9.5 million in the prior year’s quarter.

The full-year 2023 results also showed progress, with revenue climbing 27% to $461.5 million from $363.0 million in 2022. The non-GAAP gross margin for the year improved to 15% from 13% in 2022. Bookings for the year were robust at $1.53 billion, a 44% increase from 2022, and the contracted backlog nearly doubled to $1.9 billion. Contracted storage assets under management (AUM) grew by 77% YoY, and solar monitoring AUM increased by 10% YoY.

John Carrington, CEO of Stem, expressed pride in achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2023, attributing the success to increased margins and ongoing cost discipline. He emphasized the company’s strong position to generate positive operating cash flow driven by its software technology leadership. Carrington also highlighted the solid quarter of bookings and the contracted backlog nearing $2 billion.

Looking ahead, Stem’s outlook for the full year 2024 anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $5 million and $20 million, with operating cash flow generation of at least $50 million. However, the forecasted revenue of $600-700 million falls short of the analyst consensus of $803.8 million. This guidance, along with projected bookings of $1,500 – $2,000 million, has led to a significant market reaction, with Stem’s stock plunging 12.82% as investors responded to the weaker-than-expected guidance.

Stem’s management remains focused on extending their technology leadership position, building software services revenue, and achieving profitable growth. The company’s financial and operating outlook for 2024 reflects these priorities, despite the challenges presented by the current guidance.

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