Crude oil prices ended slightly lower Thursday, but near the highs of 2023, after the Russian government said it was temporarily banning exports of gasoline and diesel, adding to global supply woes expected through year-end.
That meant a third day of declines for oil, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep its policy interest rate above 5% through next year.
Price action
-
West Texas Intermediate crude
CL00,
-0.28% CLX23,
-0.28%
for November delivery fell 3 cents, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $89.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, booking at third day of declines, according to Dow Jones Market Data. -
November Brent crude
BRN00,
-0.22% BRNX23,
-0.16%
lost 23 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $93.30 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. -
October gasoline
RBV23,
+0.13%
rose 7 cents to $2.62 a gallon, while October heating oil
HOV23,
-0.74%
gained 1.2% to end at a $3.368 a gallon. -
November natural gas
NGX23,
-0.21%
fell 2.8% to settle at $2.84 per million British thermal units.
Market drivers
Russia said it was immediately enacting a temporary ban on exports of gasoline and diesel to bolster the domestic market, ahead of the crucial winter heating months.
“Oil markets are focused on the near-term supply deficit through year-end,” said Troy Vincent, senior market analyst at DTN, in an interview, adding that Moscow’s new export ban compounds earlier production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia are helping keep crude pricing elevated heading into the winter months.
Russia said it would continue exports to a small group of former Soviet countries and continue to fuel the Russian military.
“Russia is trying to stabilize the domestic situation, which means only ex-Soviet states will have access to their exports,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, in emailed commentary. “The oil market just finished pricing in the extension of a 300,000 bpd oil export cut, and now faces uncertainty as to how long this temporary ban will last.”
In recent months, Russia has suffered shortages of gasoline and diesel. Wholesale fuel prices have spiked, although retail prices are capped to try to curb them in line with official inflation. Russia is one of the world’s biggest seaborne exporters of diesel and the bank follows a fall in shipments earlier this month, which helped push up diesel prices in Europe.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, including the latest batch of forecasts and Powell’s guidance, continued to roil U.S. markets Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
surging and U.S. equity benchmarks
SPX
lower for a third session in a row.
The Fed left interest rates on hold Wednesday, but signaled one more rate hike would likely arrive before year’s end. Powell also surprised reporters and analysts by saying he didn’t see a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy as guaranteed.
Powell said “energy prices being higher, that is a significant thing,” Wednesday during a press conference, while pointing to higher energy costs as part of a “collection of risks” the central bank is monitoring when considering interest rates and the health of the economy.
Also Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. natural-gas supplies in storage rose by 64 billion cubic feet for the week ended Sept. 22. On average, that was spot on with estimates from analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
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