Social Security’s cost-of-living-adjustment calculation for 2024 is expected in mid-October, but a U.S. government shutdown could put that release on hold.
In order to calculate next year’s COLA, the Social Security Administration needs September’s consumer price index data, which is expected out on Oct. 12. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which operates under the U.S. Labor Department and releases CPI data, would cease operations if a shutdown occurs. Of the 2,350 people who work at the BLS prior to the lapse, zero would be full-time, the contingency plan said.
The U.S. is getting closer to a partial government shutdown, at which point certain benefits and services could temporarily stop. Republicans and Democrats can’t agree on the country’s spending, and if matters aren’t settled by Sept. 30, a shutdown will begin on Oct. 1, forcing millions of federal workers to either be furloughed or continue working without a paycheck. MarketWatch is covering Congress’ actions and a possible shutdown live here.
The Social Security Administration is also expected to announce the 2024 COLA on Oct. 12, but that could change if a shutdown persists, according to the Labor Department’s contingency plan shared on the Office of Management and Budget’s website.
“A delay of the CPI release may have an impact on the COLA announcement by the Social Security Administration,” the department said in its plan.
The Social Security Administration did not respond to a request for comment.
A government shutdown is not expected to affect Medicare’s open enrollment period, which begins on Oct. 15, but it could extend wait times to talk to a customer service representative from the agency, experts said.
Beneficiaries may see a 3.2% boost from the COLA next year, according to the latest estimate out of the Senior Citizens League, which tracks and estimates cost-of-living adjustments. The estimate would equate to a $57.30 per month increase for a retiree receiving the average monthly benefit of $1,790, according to the organization’s report. The 2023 COLA was much higher, though, at close to 9%.
A government shutdown would not deter beneficiaries from receiving their checks. The Social Security Administration said in its contingency plan, also shared on the OMB website, it would “ensure accurate and timely payment of benefits” during a lapse. The agency would also continue conducting appeals processes and critical information technology support. A shutdown could negatively impact disability determination services, however, since those services rely on state employees, and the agency cannot direct states on excepting (working without pay) or furloughing their employees during a shutdown.
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