Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll.
The poll found Harris beating Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters in all three states, though those leads are within the survey’s margins of error. Likely voters are a subset of the entire pool of registered voters surveyed.
From Monday to Thursday, the poll surveyed 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin. From Tuesday to Friday, the poll surveyed 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania.
The head-to-head results are slightly different when looking at all of the registered voter respondents: Harris maintained a four-point lead in Wisconsin, but had a three-point lead in Pennsylvania and actually lagged behind Trump by three points in Michigan.
The Times/Siena poll is the most recent data point tracing the broader reshuffle that has taken place since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris to take over as the Democratic presidential nominee. Though the poll still shows the candidates neck-and-neck, it is clear that Harris has fundamentally changed the state of the race from just one month ago.
In the weeks since Biden’s exit, Harris has made up much of the lost polling ground for the Democratic ticket and has even taken over Trump’s lead in some cases.
In May, even before the president’s disastrous June debate performance, the Times/Siena polls found Biden exactly tied with Trump in Wisconsin. Biden was lagging behind the Republican presidential nominee in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
One result that has stayed the same even through the Democratic party’s shakeup: The economy ranks as a top voter issue among registered voters.
Recessionary fears came into full view last week after stock markets tumbled on Monday and struggled to recoup their gains in the following days. The market dip was in part a product of a weaker-than-expected jobs report stoking fears that the Federal Reserve’s failure to cut interest rates is putting too much pressure on the economy.
Trump has a nine-point lead with voters on his handling of the economy compared to Harris, according to the Times/Siena poll.
The Times/Siena surveys were also conducted as voters processed Harris’ running mate pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom she selected on Tuesday after a turbocharged vetting process. Though Walz had little national name recognition just two weeks ago, he was catapulted into the spotlight for his plainspoken media interviews, affable demeanor and his pivot into politics after working as a high school teacher.
Despite Walz’s highly progressive policy record, some Democrats eyed his Midwest, rural background as an opportunity to expand the Democratic coalition.
The Times/Siena poll found Walz had a 36% favorability rating among registered voters, the same as Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. However, only 27% of respondents gave Walz an unfavorable rating versus 46% of voters for Vance.
Along with her polling gains, Harris has enjoyed a boom in enthusiasm in the form of record levels of donations, new volunteer sign-ups and rally crowds that fill entire arenas since launching her campaign for president.
With 87 days until the election and even fewer days until early voting, the Harris campaign has been working to ensure that the initial hype translates to real votes at the ballot box.
“We are the underdogs in this race, but we have the momentum, and I know exactly what we are up against,” Harris said at a Philadelphia rally of over 12,000 people on Wednesday.
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