Russia-Ukraine war updates from April 16, 2024

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday said that Russia could be encouraged by the U.S. debate over aid for Ukraine and called on the House of Representatives to pass a Ukraine aid bill.

“I do fear that Russia is beginning to see signs that the U.S. and our allies are tiring and finding it more difficult to find ways to support Ukraine and that gives them the hope that they can outlast us and wait for our resolve to crumble,” Yellen said in a news conference ahead of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s spring meetings.

Yellen said that there was “no substitute” for the U.S. Congress providing military and budget support to Ukraine.

A bill that would see the U.S. support Ukraine with fresh aid has been stuck in the House of Representatives for months. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday said he planned to separate the aid package into four individual bills that would each cover one aspect of the overall package.

Yellen on Monday reiterated that it was important to find a way to unlock the value stored in Russian assets that have been frozen by the U.S. and and its allies.

A debate about whether or not there is a legal way to use these funds to support Ukraine has engulfed Western leaders in recent months. A key concern is that frozen assets are by definition only temporarily retained rather than fully seized, so it is unclear whether they can be redistributed.

Yellen on Tuesday said she believed the risks were manageable, especially if the G7 acted as a united group.

— Sophie Kiderlin

The perpetrators of March the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Moscow were connected with Ukrainian nationalists, the head of the Russian Security Council said Tuesday.

“During the investigation, the connection between the direct perpetrators of this terrorist attack and Ukrainian nationalists was confirmed and procedurally established,” Nikolai Patrushev, a high-profile Russian hawk and ultranationalist close to Putin, commented Tuesday, according to news agency Interfax.

“The perpetrators, accomplices, organizers of this monstrous bloody terrorist attack, and other affiliated persons, no matter where they hide and no matter how they try to confuse the traces of the crime, will suffer a well-deserved punishment,” Patrushev added.

He did not present proof to substantiate his claims.

Patrushev and other prominent Kremlin officials have been keen to pin the blame for the Crocus City Hall attack, in which gunmen killed 145 people, on Ukraine and several of its Western allies despite the Islamic State terrorist group claiming responsibility.

A number of men from Tajikistan were charged with terrorism offences following the attack.

Kyiv and its partners describe Russia’s claims that they were involved in the attack as nonsense, and Russia has yet to present any proof for its claims. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief said Russia was aware that a terrorist attack was being planned weeks before the massacre, also not substantiating this claim.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine “ran out of missiles” to stop a Russian strike destroying a Ukrainian thermal power plant near the capital Kyiv last week.

“I will give you one example, a very simple example, the Trypilska power plant. Electricity in the Kyiv region depends on it. Eleven missiles were headed towards it. The first seven, we took down. Four destroyed Trypilska,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with PBS.

“Why? Because we had zero missiles. We ran out of all missiles,” he said. CNBC was unable to verify Zelenskyy’s account.

The Trypilska thermal power plant, the biggest energy supplier for the Kyiv, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions, was completely destroyed last Thursday, marking one of the more impactful strikes for Russian forces, who have significantly increased their attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure recently.

Zelenskyy’s comments come as Ukraine’s pleas for more air defenses become more desperate.

Ukraine’s military leadership is also warning that the country’s armed forces are facing such shortages of artillery ammunition that some units on the frontlines are rationing their use of artillery shells.

Ukraine is waiting for a major U.S. aid package worth $61 billion to be approved, and there are concerns that supplies are dwindling in the meantime.

Zelenskyy told PBS that NATO members’ military assistance for Israel when it was attacked by Iran’s drone and missile strike showed it also had the capacity to defend and protect Ukraine.

“When someone says that our allies cannot provide us with this or that weapon or they cannot be in Ukraine with this or that force, because that would be perceived as if Ukraine is engaging NATO in the war, well, after [Saturday’s] attack, I want to ask you a question, is Israel part of NATO or not?” he said.

“Israel is not a NATO country. The NATO allies, including NATO countries, have been defending Israel. They showed the Iranian forces that Israel was not alone.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed into law a bill overhauling army mobilization rules, according to the parliamentary website.

The law will come into force a month after it is officially published. It obliges men to update their draft data with the authorities, boosts payments to those who volunteer, and adds new punishment for draft dodging.

— Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping laid out four priorities that he said would prevent the “crisis” in Ukraine from deteriorating.

China, a close geopolitical ally and economic partner of Russia, has repeatedly described the war as a “crisis” and has refused to condemn Moscow’s invasion.

“First, we must prioritize maintaining peace and stability and refrain from seeking selfish gain,” he said, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported, according to a Google translation.

“Second, we must cool the situation rather than adding fuel to the fire. Third, we must create conditions for restoring peace and refrain from further escalating tensions,” he said.

“Fourth, we must reduce the negative impact on the global economy and refrain from undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains,” Xi added.

Xi’s comments followed talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, as the German leader concluded a three-day trip to China to strengthen trade ties with the world’s second-largest economy.

Last year, China put forward a 12-point peace plan regarding Ukraine, which was criticized for lacking substance and introducing no concrete measures to bring about an end to the fighting.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian forces are shifting forces away from the Lyman area in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine and moving them toward the Chasiv Yar area in order to intensify their offensive around the town, a Ukrainian official said Tuesday.

“The situation around Chasiv Yar remains dynamic,” Ruslan Muzychuk, a spokesperson for the National Guard of Ukraine, told the Espresso news channel.

“On the part of our Defense Forces, efforts are being undertaken non-stop to hold ground in all areas and prevent a flanking attack on Chasiv Yar,” he said.

“We see that the enemy is shifting reserves, forces, and assets toward this axis in order to achieve success and advance further along the front line. Of course, our Defense Forces are in a more advantageous position, including as regards fortifications and the very location of Chasiv Yar,” Muzychuk said.

Ukrainian officials have said this week that Russian forces are concentrating their offensive in Donetsk on their next main objective of capturing Chasiv Yar, a town to the west of Bakhmut. Seizing the town would be seen as a step toward advancing toward the larger and more strategically important town of Kramatorsk.

Russia had “pulled up reserves from the Lyman axis toward Chasiv Yar in order to intensify the offensive,” Muzychuk said.

“This testifies to Chasiv Yar being critical for the enemy. Therefore, they will try with all their might to achieve at least some gains there,” he added.

— Holly Ellyatt

Iran is reportedly ready to give Russian authorities access to a Russian citizen on board a cargo vessel it seized days ago.

The ship, the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries, was seized by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in the Strait of Hormuz last Saturday after they claimed the vessel was linked to Israel. The seizure of the vessel was seen as a retaliation for Israel’s strike on Iran’s Damascus embassy compound, but also came ahead of a larger drone and missile strike on Israel last weekend.

News agency Tass reported Tuesday that the Russian Embassy in Iran had stated that Tehran, an ally of Moscow, would soon provide access to Russian citizen Timofey Kolchanov, who is on the vessel.

“According to information from the official authorities of Iran, the sea vessel Aries, on which Russian citizen Timofey Kolchanov is located, has been moved to the port of Bandar Abbas. The Iranian side promised to provide access to our citizen in the near future,” the embassy indicated.

“As soon as this happens, employees The embassies will personally visit Timofey Kolchanov,” the statement said, Tass reported.

The embassy also noted that “the Russian sailor was given the opportunity to talk on the phone with his family.” CNBC was unable to verify the development.

— Holly Ellyatt

Chinese President Xi Jinping said Tuesday that Beijing was promoting a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine, amid criticism that China has not done enough to influence its ally Russia to seek a peaceful solution to the war.

“China is not a party or participant in the Ukraine crisis, but it has been promoting peace talks in its own way,” Xi said, according to news agency CCTV.

“China encourages and supports all efforts that are conducive to the peaceful resolution of the crisis, and supports the timely convening of an international peace conference recognized by Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation by all parties, and fair discussion of all peace options. China is willing to maintain cooperation with all relevant parties, including Germany, in this regard.”

Xi has been holding talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is in China to strengthen trade ties with the Asian powerhouse amid tense relations between the country and the West.

China presented a peace plan in February 2023 that it said provided a blueprint to end the Ukraine war. It was criticized for not condemning Russia’s invasion, however, and for a lack of concrete proposals to end the fighting, instead calling for the more general “respecting of the sovereignty of all countries,” “resolving the humanitarian crisis” and the “ceasing of hostilities.” It still refers to the war as a “crisis.”

Timothy Ash, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House and a senior sovereign strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said in emailed comments that China put “literally no effort in following up” on its peace proposals.

“For China, the West and Russia gripped in a proxy war over Ukraine is a win – win … For China the war weakens Russia, and makes it more dependent on China, and underlines that Russia is the junior partner in the relationship,” he said, adding that China had also benefited from “knock-down” prices on Russian commodity exports.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian forces continue to pummel eastern Ukraine in a bid to advance farther into the Donetsk region while Ukraine continues to suffer shortages of manpower and materiel.

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Monday that Russian forces were aiming to capture the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk by May 9, the date on which Russia commemorates Soviet victory in World War II.

Chasiv Yar lies west of Bakhmut, which was captured by Russian forces last May. Capturing Chasiv Yar would give Russia another strategic gain in Donetsk and could allow it to advance on industrial hub Kramatorsk. Syrskyi did not present evidence for his claim.

Syrskyi said he had responded to Russian operations to seize Chasiv Yar by strengthening defensive positions and strengthening brigades with ammunition, drones, and electronic warfare devices. On Saturday, Syrskyi warned the situation on the eastern front had “significantly worsened in recent days.”

Ukraine’s military said Tuesday that Russian forces had launched 16 missile attacks, 31 airstrikes and 79 MLRS (multiple-launch rocket systems) attacks on the positions of Ukrainian forces and settlements in the past 24 hours. In the Lyman, Avdiivka and Bakhmut area of Donetsk, Ukrainian forces repelled 56 attacks in the past day, the military said.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Monday that Ukrainian forces’ ability to repel intensified Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine has “degraded due to materiel shortages and will likely continue to degrade in the near future should delays in U.S. security assistance continue.”

The ISW said Russian forces are “capitalizing on Ukrainian materiel shortages … to make marginal tactical advances but that future Russian assaults may be able to achieve more significant and threatening gains, particularly west of Bakhmut, should the U.S. continue to withhold assistance to Ukraine.”

— Holly Ellyatt

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., on Monday said he plans to move forward with four individual bills to fund Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, separating out key components of a foreign aid package that has been shelved in the House for months.

Johnson held a Monday evening conference with House Republicans to lay out the four bills: one to fund Israel, another for Ukraine, another for Taiwan and a fourth that would wrap several foreign policy proposals into one.

The plan comes as Johnson balances political threats from his party members against added pressure to provide military support to Israel following Iran’s attempted attack over the weekend.

Read more on the story here: Speaker Johnson to advance separate Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan bills after Iran attack

Water levels in rivers in swathes of Russia’s Ural and southwestern Siberian regions continued to rise rapidly, officials said on Tuesday, flooding hundreds of houses, cutting off power and forcing urgent evacuations of residents.

More than 300 houses and nearly 700 residential plots have been flooded in Russia’s Kurgan region straddling the Tobol River near the border with Kazakhstan, Russia’s emergency ministry said on Tuesday.

“The water level in the Tobol River is rising rapidly,” the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.

In the city of Kurgan, the region’s administrative centre, power was cut off, affecting about 1,500 residents, local officials said late on Monday.

Vadim Shumkov, governor of the Kurgan region, had said that he expected a “very difficult” situation, with the waters in the Tobol rising possibly up to 11 meters (36 ft), or nearly double the bursting level at some places.

Residents of Ishim, a town of 65,000 people in the Tyumen region in southwestern Siberia, bordering Kazakhstan, were asked early on Tuesday urgently evacuate because of a critical rise in the water level in the Ishim river that flows through the town.

Late on Monday, the region’s governor warned that the waters in the region’s rivers could reach all-time highs in the coming days.

Russia’s southern Ural region, southwest Siberia and northern Kazakhstan have been grappling with the worst flooding in living memory after large snow falls melted swiftly amid heavy rain over land already waterlogged before winter.

By late Monday, melt waters that swelled the tributaries of the world’s seventh longest river system, had forcing more than 125,000 people to flee their homes.

— Reuters

Photos published via Getty Images on Monday depicted destruction in Ukraine’s city of Sloviansk in the Donetsk region, including a water-filled missile crater.

Russian shelling on the city damaged two apartment buildings, an educational institution, a bank and several cars on Monday, Ukraine’s National Police said on Telegram.

Ukraine’s military chief said Russian forces are aiming to capture the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk by May 9, the date on which Russia commemorates Soviet victory in World War II.

Chasiv Yar lies west of Bakhmut, a town reduced to rubble but finally captured by Russian forces last May after months of fighting. Capturing the town would give Russia another strategic gain in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a war hot spot, and could allow it to advance on industrial hub Kramatorsk.

“The higher Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9,” Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said on Telegram, without presenting evidence for his claim.

Syrskyi said he had responded to Russian operations to seize Chasiv Yar by strengthening defensive positions and strengthening brigades with ammunition, drones, and electronic warfare devices.

On Saturday, Syrskyi posted on Telegram that the situation on the eastern front had “significantly worsened in recent days.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Two people were killed and four were injured on Monday in a Russian attack on the Ukrainian village of Lukyantsi in the Kharkiv region, local governor Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram.

Russia used a guided aerial bomb to carry out the attack, Syniehubov said.

Two men in their sixties died immediately as a result of the attack, Syniehubov said, while four other civilians were being treated for shrapnel wounds and blast injuries in a medical facility. An educational institution was also hit by the strikes, he added.

CNBC could not independently verify the reports.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday expressed “extreme concern over another dangerous escalation” in the Middle East following Iran’s missile and drone strike on Israel.

“We express our extreme concern at yet another dangerous escalation in the region. We have repeatedly warned that the numerous unresolved crises in the Middle East, primarily in the area of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which are often fueled by irresponsible provocative actions, will exacerbate tensions,” the foreign ministry said on Telegram.

“We call on all parties involved in the conflict to exercise restraint. We expect the regional states to resolve the existing problems through political and diplomatic means. We believe it is important for the constructively-minded international players to contribute to this effort,” it added.

Israel has vowed to retaliate for the Iranian strike, which was carried out to avenge an alleged Israeli airstrike that killed several top Iranian commanders in Damascus earlier in April.

Russia did not condemn Iran’s attack, repeating Iran’s assertion that the attack was “undertaken as part of the right to self-defence.”

An all-out war between Israel and Iran could drag Russia into its orbit, given its close relationship with Tehran. Russia has become a close ally of Iran, with the countries developing a deeper military relationship in recent years, and with Russia using thousands of Iranian-made attack drones in Ukraine.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia continues to advertise and seek to recruit foreign nationals to join its armed forces to fight in Ukraine, the U.K. said Monday.

“The most recent leaflet, written in English, requests foreigners to join a ‘special’ unit in the Russian Army and highlights a monthly salary of $2,200, a signing on payment of $2,000, a Russian passport, free medical treatment and training,” the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update.

“Online recruitment adverts were distributed during the middle of 2023 specifically appealing to citizens of neighbouring countries, such as Armenia and Kazakhstan, with monthly salary offers of $1,973 and signing on payments of $5,140,” the ministry said on social media platform X.

Russia was also recently accused of looking to recruit migrants from India and Nepal who were then sent to fight in Ukraine with the U.K. noting that it was likely that migrant workers “have been coerced to fight under false pretences or with the offer of financial incentives.”

Russia likely wishes to avoid further unpopular domestic mobilization measures, the ministry said, amid significant casualties in Ukraine — currently estimated at 913 per day, the U.K. noted.

“Russia needs to continue to explore all recruitment avenues to maintain a high tempo of personnel in-flow, the U.K. said.

— Holly Ellyatt